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I do think that Josh is underestimated as a player. His emotional outbursts and humorous tendencies have clouded the fact that he is an intelligent, thinking person who does have the ability to analyze a given situation or game move. However, he is not included in discussions, just invited to join in and then told what to do. Even when it seems that he may actually begin to push back or question a particular game move, he caves, begins to either mumble or stutter, giving Paul or Christmas a clear path to yet again control the conversation. Eventually though, one does have their fill and begin to find their courage to speak what has always been on their mind. Having been with Christmas for a while now, and building a tight alliance with her, hearing her wobble about her final two, should have spoken volumes. I too would begin entertaining the thought of abandoning the "friendship" vessel, only to find my own "inflatable" so that I could save my own game for the win. Thankfully, Josh is entertaining this notion but who knows what he will actually do. He has been presented with this scenario only recently and his actions were dictated by the fact that he is too emotionally charged. He caved before, giving in to the pressure he is feeling. His past behavior, though short as it is in this game, may give way to predicting his current and future choices he will need to make. Josh has an amazing heart but, often the heart and the head do not speak the same language or are on the same page. Alternatively though, when you examine his choices right now, siding with Alex, to me, would be a huge disaster for him as well. However, with Alex you would know what you are getting, a disloyal, two-faced option whose only concern is Alex. While Christmas may not be any better, at least he would get dis-loyalty while hugging it out and having some concern for his feelings. Either way, each option is lopsided and does not favor Josh at all. But, this is just my opinion, quickly formed while trying to cover hours of missed game play in the matter of minutes. I also feel, again, just my opinion, but Big Brother may have been a dream come true for Josh or a check he could mark off on his bucket list of things to accomplish. While he may love this game or consider himself to be a super fan of the game, this does not pave the path for this game to be best suited for him to actually play. He is entirely too emotional for this game and it is that emotional barrier which will get in his way every time. There is nothing wrong with him being so emotionally invested with people who do love and care for him. It does become a problem though when he is so emotionally tied to people who cannot reciprocate it back to him or when he is purposely taken advantage of. Prime example is now Alex crying on command for Josh because she knows she will tear at his heart strings. He simply worries too much about what others think of him, how he is being portrayed or whether or not he is making a good impression with his family. While he may be able to temporarily set aside his emotional self to make moves with both Christmas and Paul, it is clear that these moves are very painful for him. He is entirely too concerned with how he is or will be be viewed by his fellow house guests still in the house and in the jury house. I would even add that playing 'The Amazing Race' would not be conducive to his personality because that also has it's fair share of backstabbing and game related lies. But, not being able to un-ring the Big Brother bell, I do hope that Josh stands his ground, does what he thinks is right for himself, paying close attention to the comments and behaviors his fellow housemates make. I do think that Josh has the ability to see this through and garner a win, but he may have to check his emotions at the door, put on his big boy pants and begin to think for himself and no one else. 
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My Sleepy Opinion
