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The direct questions about who will win and who should win clearly favor Paul, with Nicole a weak second.
The jury vote analysis clearly favors Nicole, and even has James slightly above Paul in the James vs Paul scenaro.
Remember that exactly the same people are generating both results, which is why it's so interesting. I'm more inclined to believe the jury votes, as that forced people to evaluate the mechanics of winning, rather than jumping straight to what they want.
The James vs Paul scenario looks like it could easily swing either way, but it really looks good for Nicole in any scenario including her.
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