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This is a response to: Analyzing the Final 3 and why they should or should not win the game:
Nusa
Carpal Tunnel
Reged: 08/15/09
Posts: 2963
Classic analysis problem of analyzing what WE see in confidence, rather than what the JURY experienced first hand and how they feel about it.
09/23/15 01:22 PM




Obviously, who the F2 is is key. It's less clear who Vanessa is going to take, since she doesn't talk to the cameras. Steve and Van did tell Liz that they were taking each other yesterday, but it's difficult to know for sure if Van was lying about that. We know Steve is, since he talks to us via the cameras.

Steve vs Liz: only happens if Steve wins final HoH and takes Liz.
Liz gets Austins and Julia's votes. Liz MAY get Vanessa's vote, but there's a chance she'll respect Steves game enough to overcome her bitterness. I think Steve gets the other six votes. The Jury's perception of Liz is of someone who let Austin played the game for her. True, Liz won some competitions, but so did Steve...especially when it counted.

Vanessa vs Liz: only happens if Vanessa wins final HoH and takes Liz. Liz gets Austins and Julia's votes. Vanessa MAY get Steve's vote, but Steve may be bitter enough to vote against her. The Jury's perception of Liz is of someone who let Austin played the game for her. Vannessa has a better comp record than Liz. However, Vanessa also has some bitterness among the jurors...some may vote against her out of spite. Which way Steve votes may actually matter on this matchup.

Vanessa vs Steve: probably only happens if Vanessa keeps her word to take Steve. She's already gotten Liz to promise her her vote, and I think it's likely she'll get Julia's vote as well. I think Austin and John will vote for Steve. That leaves five people who could go either way, although I think most of them lean towards Steve.

In summary, if Steve wins final HoH and takes Liz, he wins the game. If Vanessa wins final HoH, she has a decent chance of winning against either of them, but it's not certain.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Analyzing the Final 3 and why they should or should not win the game:
Pyke
09/23/15 12:06 PM
xx * Good Read! But I'm rooting for the HG who was the most Self-Aware & willing to go with the flow, flow, flow, BUT without a life vest:
BBenthusiast
09/23/15 02:11 PM
xx * I'll counter your points with my views...
Pyke
09/24/15 09:33 AM
xx * LOL Pyke...
Sizzle
09/24/15 09:39 AM
xx * I admit Steve outplayed Vanessa in the final 3. I don't admit that Steve made any of the moves he claims. Up until final 3. NT
Pyke
09/24/15 09:54 AM
xx * This isn't...
Sizzle
09/23/15 01:25 PM
xx * Steve FTW, indeed. :) NT
BigGirlPanties
09/23/15 01:35 PM
xx * Classic analysis problem of analyzing what WE see in confidence, rather than what the JURY experienced first hand and how they feel about it.
Nusa
09/23/15 01:22 PM
xx * This analysis is about their game to this point, not final 2 speeches. This is about their game moves. NT
Pyke
09/23/15 01:32 PM
xx * My point is it's the Jurys perception of those moves that need analysis, since they are the only ones who decide who "deserves" to win. Not us. NT
Nusa
09/23/15 01:51 PM
xx * And according to Dr. Will who hosted the Jury meeting, many are very bitter at Vanessa.. NT
Sizzle
09/23/15 03:32 PM
xx * Enjoyed reading your analysis. Thanks. NT
MsMorchella
09/23/15 12:45 PM
xx * No analysis needed. It's a reality show that requires a shi* load of luck. NT
Realiteebites
09/23/15 12:08 PM
xx * Thanks for the work put into that . Nice Job :) NT
kathyG
09/23/15 12:08 PM

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